Expecting Rain
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Set List Variation - An objective measure
https://www.expectingrain.com/discussions/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=69129
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Author:  Still Go Barefoot [ Mon December 10th, 2012, 11:24 GMT ]
Post subject:  Re: Set List Variation - An objective measure

Love the analysis, Pius. Love it.

Author:  twilight [ Tue December 18th, 2012, 21:19 GMT ]
Post subject:  Re: Set List Variation - An objective measure

Reading this has been great fun. It's interesting to see the statistical variations within.

I also have the fortune/misfortune of having attended 5 concerts, one of which made the "Bottom 25" (before this years tally is considered) and one that made the "Top 25". There are certainly merits to both show.

The Bottom show had an extra song in it, and featured what I felt was a more dynamic and engaged Dylan (not just behind the keyboard with occasional center stage harmonica playing). At the bottom show I was in the front of the pit, and I had distant seats in the Top show. Both have their merits, and I'm not sure which experience I liked better. In one show I didn't know what to expect, but in another I did.

Author:  Still Go Barefoot [ Fri December 28th, 2012, 02:59 GMT ]
Post subject:  Re: Set List Variation - An objective measure

twilight wrote:
Reading this has been great fun. It's interesting to see the statistical variations within.

I also have the fortune/misfortune of having attended 5 concerts, one of which made the "Bottom 25" (before this years tally is considered) and one that made the "Top 25". There are certainly merits to both show.

The Bottom show had an extra song in it, and featured what I felt was a more dynamic and engaged Dylan (not just behind the keyboard with occasional center stage harmonica playing). At the bottom show I was in the front of the pit, and I had distant seats in the Top show. Both have their merits, and I'm not sure which experience I liked better. In one show I didn't know what to expect, but in another I did.

When you get to the Bottom you go back to the Top of the slide.

Author:  Still Go Barefoot [ Sun March 31st, 2013, 00:46 GMT ]
Post subject:  Re: Set List Variation - An objective measure

Better start setting aside some time at work Pius.
A locomotive freight train is on it's way.
First stop, Buffalo.

Author:  Still Go Barefoot [ Fri January 2nd, 2015, 10:55 GMT ]
Post subject:  Re: Set List Variation - An objective measure

tompius wrote:
Here are some more stats on the Prediction Index. The average values of the PI for each year of the NET are as follows:

Year Average Year Average
1988 0.42 2000 0.47
1989 0.40 2001 0.45
1990 0.41 2002 0.46
1991 0.52 2003 0.51
1992 0.46 2004 0.47
1993 0.51 2005 0.36
1994 0.50 2006 0.47
1995 0.42 2007 0.54
1996 0.42 2008 0.47
1997 0.47 2009 0.47
1998 0.53 2010 0.52
1999 0.47 2011 0.59


Clearly the trend is towards greater predictability :( as the years pass with 2011 coming out as easily the most predictable year thus far. I don't think this will surprise anyone who has been watching the set lists over recent years.

The year 2005 is a notable blip in this general trend. Somehow I don't expect surges of unpredictability in the years ahead. For one thing, Bob doesn't seem to want to do cover versions any more. Then again ... who knows what Bob is going to do.

Yes, since 2011, not so much variability...

Author:  my precious time [ Fri October 2nd, 2015, 20:36 GMT ]
Post subject:  Re: Set List Variation - An objective measure

An update to this thread might be interesting... :twisted:

Author:  cohenadmirer [ Sun October 4th, 2015, 16:36 GMT ]
Post subject:  Re: Set List Variation - An objective measure

Things have changed- much easier now to predict the setlist!

Author:  Still Go Barefoot [ Tue March 29th, 2016, 11:45 GMT ]
Post subject:  Re: Set List Variation - An objective measure

my precious time wrote:
An update to this thread might be interesting... :twisted:

Ha ha!

Author:  Still Go Barefoot [ Mon April 3rd, 2017, 00:02 GMT ]
Post subject:  Re: Set List Variation - An objective measure

This thread has some interesting stats if you go back to its beginning.
Although, it might also burst some perception bubbles too.

Still Go Barefoot wrote:
Better start setting aside some time at work Pius.
A locomotive freight train is on it's way.
First stop, Buffalo.

Ha! That post was from March 2013.
Wow, was I ever wrong! (on Set List Variation)
That was the beginning of extreme stagnancy, still in play.

Author:  Oneofusmustknow [ Mon April 3rd, 2017, 08:17 GMT ]
Post subject:  Re: Set List Variation - An objective measure

I'd like to see this same analysis done - will I be correct in saying things haven't been AS predictably as is generally believed around here?

Author:  monklover [ Mon April 3rd, 2017, 13:53 GMT ]
Post subject:  Re: Set List Variation - An objective measure

I like a subjective measure better anyway. My perception was that 2005 was the last interesting year. Late that year the "No Direction Home" video was released and beginning in 2006 Dylan pretty much went exclusively 1960's and I lost interest. I wouldn't even listen to stuff I downloaded. I've still attended a few shows since then but I lost interest in set lists. Modern Times didn't help matters.

Author:  slimtimslide [ Mon April 3rd, 2017, 17:07 GMT ]
Post subject:  Re: Set List Variation - An objective measure

tompius wrote:
The year 2005 is a notable blip in this general trend. Somehow I don't expect surges of unpredictability in the years ahead. For one thing, Bob doesn't seem to want to do cover versions any more.



Ahem... so right, and yet so wrong.

Author:  Matt_77 [ Sun August 6th, 2017, 22:43 GMT ]
Post subject:  Re: Set List Variation - An objective measure

Greatest thread ever.

Author:  Still Go Barefoot [ Fri August 25th, 2017, 02:03 GMT ]
Post subject:  Re: Set List Variation - An objective measure

Matt_77 wrote:
Greatest thread ever.

Yes, we are blessed to have Tompius around here.

Author:  Still Go Barefoot [ Sat March 31st, 2018, 05:55 GMT ]
Post subject:  Re: Set List Variation - An objective measure

From Barcelona #1 2018 thread:
Quick stats after show #6 of the 2018 Spring Tour.
I am no Tompius!
This simply lists (in red) which songs haven’t been played in every 2018 show, so far:

Still Go Barefoot wrote:
Number of times played.
(Parentheses = Times played in 2018)
Red = not played at every 2018 show, semi-Wildcard

As of this show:
Barcelona, Spain (1st show)
National Auditorium of Music
March 30, 2018


877 (6) Things Have Changed
982 (6) It Ain't Me, Babe
1892 (6) Highway 61 Revisited
697 (6) Simple Twist Of Fate
322 (1) Duquesne Whistle
160 (3) Melancholy Mood
707 (2) High Water
180 (6) Tryin' To Get To Heaven
41 (3) Full Moon and Empty Arms
370 (6) Pay In Blood
1656 (6) Tangled Up In Blue
314 (6) Soon After Midnight
390 (6) Early Roman Kings
552 (6) Desolation Row
310 (1) Long and Wasted Years
631 (6) Thunder On The Mountain
188 (2?) Autumn Leaves*
820 (5) Love Sick**

1491 (6) Blowin' In The Wind
1187 (6) Ballad Of A Thin Man

*BobDylan.com lists 0, confuses ‘Autumn...’ with “Why Try...”
**Lovesick shut down by tech difficulties (Madrid #2)

Author:  Still Go Barefoot [ Sun April 15th, 2018, 21:40 GMT ]
Post subject:  Re: Set List Variation - An objective measure

To Man on the Street. Is this what you are looking for?

Author:  Futile Horn [ Tue April 17th, 2018, 12:20 GMT ]
Post subject:  Re: Set List Variation - An objective measure

Still Go Barefoot wrote:
This simply lists which songs haven’t been played in every 2018 show.


Is this a bit pathetic?

Author:  smoke [ Tue April 17th, 2018, 13:23 GMT ]
Post subject:  Re: Set List Variation - An objective measure

You mean the setlist or the trainspotting?

Author:  Still Go Barefoot [ Wed July 11th, 2018, 11:52 GMT ]
Post subject:  Re: Set List Variation - An objective measure

Matt_77 wrote:
There were 3 Sets so far:


THE SET - A VERSION (5 April 2013 - 4 August 2013) - 22 songs:

1 - "Things Have Changed"
2 - "Love Sick"
3 - "High Water (For Charley Patton)
4 - "Soon After Midnight"
5 - "Early Roman Kings"
6 - "Tangled Up In Blue"
7 - "Pay In Blood" / "Duquesne Whistle"
8 - "Visions Of Johanna" / "She Belongs To Me"
9 - "Spirit On The Water"
10 - "Beyond Here Lies Nothin'" / "A Hard Rain's a-Gonna Fall" / "Desolation Row"
11 - "Blind Willie McTell"
12 - "What Good Am I?" / "Simple Twist Of Fate"
13 - "Summer Days" / "Thunder On The Mountain"
14 - "Scarlet Town"


Encore

15 - "Ballad Of A Thin Man" / "All Along The Watchtower"

____________________________________________________________

THE SET - B VERSION (10 October 2013 - 17 July 2016) - 31 Songs:


1 - "Things Have Changed"
2 - "She Belongs To Me"
3 - "Beyond Here Lies Nothin'"
4 - "What Good Am I?" / "Workingman's Blues #2" / "What I'll Do?" / "The Night We Called It A Day"
5 - "Duquesne Whistle"
6 - "Waiting For You" / "Melancholy Mood"
7 - "Pay In Blood"
8 - "Tangled Up In Blue" / "I'm A Fool To Want You" / "Full Moon And Empty Arms" / "That Old Black Magic"
9 - "Love Sick"


Intermission


10 - "High Water (For Charley Patton)"
11 - "Simple Twist Of Fate" / "Why Try To Change Me Now?"
12 - "Early Roman Kings"
13 - "Forgetful Heart" / "I Could Have Told You"
14 - "Spirit On The Water"
15 - "Scarlet Town"
16 - "Soon After Midnight" / "All Or Nothing At All"
17 - "Long And Wasted Years"
18 - "Autumn Leaves"


Encore

19 - "All Along The Watchtower" / "Stay With Me"
20 - "Blowin' In The Wind"


____________________________________________________________

THE SET - C VERSION (7 October 2016 - ?????) - 35 songs:


1 - "Things Have Changed"
2 - "Don't Think Twice, It's All Right" / "It Ain't Me, Babe"
3 - "Highway 61 Revisited"
4 - "It's All Over Now, Babe Blue" / "Beyond Here Lies Nothin'" / "Why Try To Change Me Now?" / "Simple Twist Of Fate"
5 - "Full Moon And Empty Arms" / "Summer Days"
6 - "High Water (For Charley Patton)" / "Make You Feel My Love" / "Melancholy Mood"
7 - "Duquesne Whistle" / "Honest With Me"
8 - "Love Sick" / "Tryin' To Get To Heaven"
9 - "Tangled Up In Blue" / "Stormy Weather" / "Come Rain Or Come Shine"
10 - "Lonesome Day Blues" / "Pay In Blood" / "I Could Have Told You"
11 - "Once Upon A Time"
12 - "Early Roman Kings"
13 - "Desolation Row"
14 - "Soon After Midnight" / "Spirit On The Water"
15 - "All Or Nothing At All"
16 - "That Old Black Magic" / "Thunder On The Mountain"
17 - "Long And Wasted Years"
18 - "Autumn Leaves"


Encore


19 - "Blowin' In The Wind"
20 - "Ballad Of A Thin Man"


____________________________________________________________


01 - Things Have Changed - A / B / C
02 - Love Sick - A / B / C
03 - High Water (For Charley Patton) - A / B / C
04 - Soon After Midnight - A / B / C
05 - Early Roman Kings - A / B / C
06 - Tangled Up In Blue - A / B / C
07 - Pay In Blood - A / B / C
08 - Duquesne Whistle - A / B / C
09 - Spirit On The Water - A / B / C
10 - Beyond Here Lies Nothin' - A / B / C
11 - Simple Twist Of Fate - A / B / C
12 - She Belongs To Me - A / B
13 - Desolation Row - A / C
14 - What Good Am I? - A / B
15 - Summer Days - A / C
16 - Thunder On The Mountain - A / C
17 - Scarlet Town - A / B
18 - Ballad Of A Thin Man - A / C
19 - All Along The Watchtower - A / B
20 - Melancholy Mood - B / C
21 - Full Moon And Empty Arms - B / C
22 - Why Try To Change Me Now? - B / C
23 - I Could Have Told You - B / C
24 - All Or Nothing At All - B / C
25 - Long And Wasted Years - B / C
26 - Autumn Leaves - B / C
27 - Blowin' In The Wind - B / C
28 - Visions Of Johanna - A
29 - A Hard Rain's a-Gonna Fall - A
30 - Blind Willie McTell - A
31 - Workingman's Blues #2 - B
32 - What I'll Do? - B
33 - The Night We Called It A Day - B
34 - Waiting For You - B
35 - I'm A Fool To Want You - B
36 - That Old Black Magic - B
37 - Don't Think Twice, It's All Right - C
38 - It Ain't Me Babe - C
39 - Highway 61 Revisited - C
40 - It's All Over Now Babe Blue - C
41 - Make You Feel My Love - C
42 - Honest With Me - C
43 - Tryin' To Get To Heaven - C
44 - Stormy Weather - C
45 - Come Rain Or Come Shine - C
46 - Lonesome Day Blues - C
47 - Once Upon A Time - C

47 songs in constant rotation since 2013!!!


The Set
- Matt did a fine job compiling this list over
in “Discussion about Bob Dylan’s SET” thread.
Certainly worth repeating here.

Thanks again, Matt!

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