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PostPosted: Mon December 10th, 2012, 11:24 GMT 
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Love the analysis, Pius. Love it.


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PostPosted: Tue December 18th, 2012, 21:19 GMT 

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Reading this has been great fun. It's interesting to see the statistical variations within.

I also have the fortune/misfortune of having attended 5 concerts, one of which made the "Bottom 25" (before this years tally is considered) and one that made the "Top 25". There are certainly merits to both show.

The Bottom show had an extra song in it, and featured what I felt was a more dynamic and engaged Dylan (not just behind the keyboard with occasional center stage harmonica playing). At the bottom show I was in the front of the pit, and I had distant seats in the Top show. Both have their merits, and I'm not sure which experience I liked better. In one show I didn't know what to expect, but in another I did.


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PostPosted: Fri December 28th, 2012, 02:59 GMT 
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twilight wrote:
Reading this has been great fun. It's interesting to see the statistical variations within.

I also have the fortune/misfortune of having attended 5 concerts, one of which made the "Bottom 25" (before this years tally is considered) and one that made the "Top 25". There are certainly merits to both show.

The Bottom show had an extra song in it, and featured what I felt was a more dynamic and engaged Dylan (not just behind the keyboard with occasional center stage harmonica playing). At the bottom show I was in the front of the pit, and I had distant seats in the Top show. Both have their merits, and I'm not sure which experience I liked better. In one show I didn't know what to expect, but in another I did.

When you get to the Bottom you go back to the Top of the slide.


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PostPosted: Sun March 31st, 2013, 00:46 GMT 
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Better start setting aside some time at work Pius.
A locomotive freight train is on it's way.
First stop, Buffalo.


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PostPosted: Fri January 2nd, 2015, 10:55 GMT 
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tompius wrote:
Here are some more stats on the Prediction Index. The average values of the PI for each year of the NET are as follows:

Year Average Year Average
1988 0.42 2000 0.47
1989 0.40 2001 0.45
1990 0.41 2002 0.46
1991 0.52 2003 0.51
1992 0.46 2004 0.47
1993 0.51 2005 0.36
1994 0.50 2006 0.47
1995 0.42 2007 0.54
1996 0.42 2008 0.47
1997 0.47 2009 0.47
1998 0.53 2010 0.52
1999 0.47 2011 0.59


Clearly the trend is towards greater predictability :( as the years pass with 2011 coming out as easily the most predictable year thus far. I don't think this will surprise anyone who has been watching the set lists over recent years.

The year 2005 is a notable blip in this general trend. Somehow I don't expect surges of unpredictability in the years ahead. For one thing, Bob doesn't seem to want to do cover versions any more. Then again ... who knows what Bob is going to do.

Yes, since 2011, not so much variability...


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PostPosted: Fri October 2nd, 2015, 20:36 GMT 
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An update to this thread might be interesting... :twisted:


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PostPosted: Sun October 4th, 2015, 16:36 GMT 
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Things have changed- much easier now to predict the setlist!


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PostPosted: Tue March 29th, 2016, 11:45 GMT 
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my precious time wrote:
An update to this thread might be interesting... :twisted:

Ha ha!


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PostPosted: Mon April 3rd, 2017, 00:02 GMT 
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This thread has some interesting stats if you go back to its beginning.
Although, it might also burst some perception bubbles too.

Still Go Barefoot wrote:
Better start setting aside some time at work Pius.
A locomotive freight train is on it's way.
First stop, Buffalo.

Ha! That post was from March 2013.
Wow, was I ever wrong! (on Set List Variation)
That was the beginning of extreme stagnancy, still in play.


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PostPosted: Mon April 3rd, 2017, 08:17 GMT 
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I'd like to see this same analysis done - will I be correct in saying things haven't been AS predictably as is generally believed around here?


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PostPosted: Mon April 3rd, 2017, 13:53 GMT 

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I like a subjective measure better anyway. My perception was that 2005 was the last interesting year. Late that year the "No Direction Home" video was released and beginning in 2006 Dylan pretty much went exclusively 1960's and I lost interest. I wouldn't even listen to stuff I downloaded. I've still attended a few shows since then but I lost interest in set lists. Modern Times didn't help matters.


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PostPosted: Mon April 3rd, 2017, 17:07 GMT 
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tompius wrote:
The year 2005 is a notable blip in this general trend. Somehow I don't expect surges of unpredictability in the years ahead. For one thing, Bob doesn't seem to want to do cover versions any more.



Ahem... so right, and yet so wrong.


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PostPosted: Sun August 6th, 2017, 22:43 GMT 

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Greatest thread ever.


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PostPosted: Fri August 25th, 2017, 02:03 GMT 
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Matt_77 wrote:
Greatest thread ever.

Yes, we are blessed to have Tompius around here.


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PostPosted: Sat March 31st, 2018, 05:55 GMT 
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From Barcelona #1 2018 thread:
Quick stats after show #6 of the 2018 Spring Tour.
I am no Tompius!
This simply lists (in red) which songs haven’t been played in every 2018 show, so far:

Still Go Barefoot wrote:
Number of times played.
(Parentheses = Times played in 2018)
Red = not played at every 2018 show, semi-Wildcard

As of this show:
Barcelona, Spain (1st show)
National Auditorium of Music
March 30, 2018


877 (6) Things Have Changed
982 (6) It Ain't Me, Babe
1892 (6) Highway 61 Revisited
697 (6) Simple Twist Of Fate
322 (1) Duquesne Whistle
160 (3) Melancholy Mood
707 (2) High Water
180 (6) Tryin' To Get To Heaven
41 (3) Full Moon and Empty Arms
370 (6) Pay In Blood
1656 (6) Tangled Up In Blue
314 (6) Soon After Midnight
390 (6) Early Roman Kings
552 (6) Desolation Row
310 (1) Long and Wasted Years
631 (6) Thunder On The Mountain
188 (2?) Autumn Leaves*
820 (5) Love Sick**

1491 (6) Blowin' In The Wind
1187 (6) Ballad Of A Thin Man

*BobDylan.com lists 0, confuses ‘Autumn...’ with “Why Try...”
**Lovesick shut down by tech difficulties (Madrid #2)


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PostPosted: Sun April 15th, 2018, 21:40 GMT 
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To Man on the Street. Is this what you are looking for?


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PostPosted: Tue April 17th, 2018, 12:20 GMT 

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Still Go Barefoot wrote:
This simply lists which songs haven’t been played in every 2018 show.


Is this a bit pathetic?


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PostPosted: Tue April 17th, 2018, 13:23 GMT 
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You mean the setlist or the trainspotting?


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